PitchPulse

A trimmed-mean Poisson model. Each team's last 5 matches (home-only for the Home side, away-only for the Away side) are averaged with the single best and single worst result dropped, so one outlier scoreline can't dominate the read on current form. Those trimmed averages become attack/defence strength relative to the league baseline, which convert into expected goals (λ) for each side — from there, independent Poisson distributions build the score matrix, with a Dixon-Coles correction applied to the low-scoring cells before it's renormalized. Every market on the Markets tab is derived from that final matrix.

Independent Poisson treats home and away goals as statistically unrelated, but real match goals are mildly coupled by things like game state and tactics — and that shows up specifically in the low-scoring cells. The Dixon & Coles (1997) tau correction adjusts exactly those four cells (0–0, 1–0, 0–1, 1–1) before the matrix is renormalized. PitchPulse uses a fixed, literature-standard ρ = -0.13 rather than calibrating it per match — it's the same correction and formula ScoreMatrix uses, just with a static ρ instead of ScoreMatrix's dynamic per-match calibration, which keeps this model lightweight and dependency-free.

A single 6–0 or 0–5 in the last 5 can swing a raw average far more than it should. Trimming the high and low outcome keeps the read closer to a team's typical performance rather than its most extreme one.

HomeAttack = Home team's trimmed home goals-for ÷ league average home goals. HomeDefence = trimmed home goals-against ÷ league average away goals. Away strengths mirror this using the team's away form. λHome = HomeAttack × AwayDefence × league average home goals, and λAway = AwayAttack × HomeDefence × league average away goals. A strength of 1.00× means exactly league average; 1.25× means 25% above it.

1.50 home goals, 1.20 away goals per match — a generic mid-table baseline. Raw goal counts only mean something relative to context: 1.8 goals a game is modest in a high-scoring league and strong in a defensive one. Pick your league from the Country/League selector to auto-fill the real numbers, or enter them yourself for the sharpest read.

Best Bet is a consensus pick, not just whichever market has the single highest raw probability. It looks at the model's two most likely exact scorelines and checks what they agree on: the same 1X2 result, the same BTTS side, or the same side of a fixed 2.5 Over/Under line. Whichever agreed-upon market has the higher probability becomes the Best Bet. If the top two scorelines don't agree on anything, it falls back to whichever double-chance line (1X or X2) is more likely — a deliberately conservative call over backing either single outcome outright.

A 🟢/🟡/🔴/⚪ tier for the specific bet category behind your current Best Bet (e.g. "Home Win"), computed from your own logged history using a Wilson score interval lower bound rather than a raw hit rate — so a 2-for-2 record doesn't get overrated. It needs 5+ resolved picks in that category before it rates anything; below that it shows ⚪ UNPROVEN.

The 📊 Calibration button opens a running Brier score (0–1 scale, lower is better) per market — 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS — comparing your all-time average against your last 10 resolved matches. This is independent of Signal Check: it grades the model's raw probabilities directly, rather than just whether the top pick won.

Hit "+ Add to Match Log" on the Verdict tab after calculating to save a prediction. Once the match is played, enter the real final score — it's marked ✅ HIT or ❌ MISS against the Best Bet pick, and rolls into the Hit Rate shown in the stats bar. Best Bet, the Match Log, and the Markets tab all grade against the same fixed Over/Under 2.5 line, so a logged "Over 2.5" always stays comparable.

No. Everything — inputs, theme, and your Match Log — lives in your browser's local storage. There's no backend and no data ever leaves your device.

Yes — served over HTTPS, PitchPulse is an installable PWA. Use the "Install App" button in the header, or your browser's own install prompt, and it'll keep working offline afterward.